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China January Inflation Misses Forecasts, Producer Deflation Persists

Fresh readings heighten pressure for policy support before March's parliamentary guidance.

Overview

  • Consumer prices rose 0.2% year on year in January, below a Reuters-polled forecast of 0.4% and down from December's 0.8% gain.
  • On a monthly basis CPI increased 0.2%, short of expectations for a 0.3% rise.
  • Core CPI climbed 0.8% from a year earlier, easing from 1.2% in December and pointing to softer underlying demand.
  • Producer prices fell 1.4% year on year, extending more than three years of factory-gate deflation and moderating from a 1.9% drop in December.
  • NBS statistician Dong Lijuan cited a high base, Lunar New Year timing, and lower energy costs for muted CPI, as the PBOC reiterates an "appropriately loose" stance and authorities prepare further measures to tackle weak demand and overcapacity.