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China Inflation Diverges as Consumer Prices Rise and Factory Costs Keep Falling

Economists warn persistent producer deflation signals weak demand.

Overview

  • Official data show CPI up 0.7% year on year in November, the fastest in nearly two years, with a 0.1% monthly decline and core inflation steady at 1.2%.
  • PPI fell 2.2% from a year earlier for a 38th straight month of factory-gate deflation, though it inched up 0.1% from October.
  • Rising food costs led the CPI pickup, with food prices up 0.2% year on year after a 2.9% drop in October, including weather-driven jumps in fresh vegetables.
  • China's Politburo pledged more proactive policies in 2026 to expand domestic demand, and markets are watching the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference for guidance.
  • Despite weak domestic pricing power, the economy is seen on track to meet the roughly 5% annual growth goal, supported by resilient exports and a record-size trade surplus this year.