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China Forecasts Solar Capacity Overtaking Coal This Year

Officials expect non-fossil generation to provide about two-thirds of the power mix in 2026, signaling a structural shift in the grid.

Overview

  • The China Electricity Council projects solar capacity will exceed coal by year-end as wind, solar, nuclear, and hydropower expand rapidly.
  • Developers filed applications for a record 161 GW of new coal plants in 2025, according to Global Energy Monitor and CREA.
  • China commissioned an estimated 78 GW of new coal capacity in 2025, the most in a decade, even as clean energy covered all demand growth, CREA reported.
  • Regulators have moved to include utility-scale batteries in subsidy programs to help manage intermittency and strengthen grid reliability.
  • Analysts say the current coal buildout reflects a lag from earlier permitting aimed at system flexibility, creating overlap with today’s clean-energy surge.