Overview
- The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June after the National Bureau of Statistics published the monthly survey, marking a return to slight expansion for factories.
- High‑tech and AI‑related exports drove the gain with automated data‑processing equipment shipments jumping more than 60% year‑on‑year in May and the high‑tech PMI at 53.5.
- Private‑sector surveys also showed continued growth with RatingDog's PMI at 51.7 and the quarter averaging its strongest reading since late 2020.
- Domestic demand stayed weak as retail sales fell in May and the property sector continued to drag on investment and consumer confidence.
- Near‑term risks include exporters front‑loading shipments ahead of planned U.S. Section 301 tariffs in late July, fragile inventory cycles, and the need for targeted bank lending measures to sustain the recovery and support jobs.