Overview
- Official customs data show total trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with exports up about 5.5% to roughly $3.8 trillion and imports near $2.6 trillion, producing an unprecedented surplus close to $1.2 trillion.
- December outperformed forecasts as exports rose 6.6% year on year and imports increased 5.7%, beating expectations especially for imports.
- Bilateral trade with the United States slumped in 2025, with Chinese exports to the U.S. down about 20% and imports from the U.S. off 14.6%, while sales to ASEAN, Africa and the EU accelerated.
- The IMF warned China to allow a stronger currency and shift growth toward domestic consumption to ease global imbalances tied to its outsized surplus.
- Policy responses include ending VAT refunds for photovoltaic exports from April and phasing down battery export rebates, alongside evolving EU steps such as allowing minimum prices for China-made EVs.