Overview
- Cocoa futures have fallen to about $3,000–$3,300 per ton from 2024’s $12,000 peak, yet Datasembly shows retail chocolate up roughly 14% year over year in early 2026.
- Much Easter candy was produced with cocoa bought when prices were far higher, and major makers say they remain hedged above today’s levels.
- Non-cocoa costs such as packaging resin, energy, shipping and some oils remain elevated, with packaging producers warning of resin supply disruptions tied to the Middle East war.
- Retailers including Walmart, Target, Kroger and Sam’s Club are pushing low-price bundles and last-minute discounts as NRF expects a record $24.9 billion in Easter spending.
- With the International Cocoa Organisation reporting a supply surplus and a larger one forecast for 2025–26, analysts see possible price relief later in 2026, though smaller pack sizes and reformulation may temper how much shoppers feel it.