Overview
- A St. Pete Polls survey this week found Crist leading the six-way field with about 34% support and registering 51% among voters who have already cast ballots, a share that would allow him to win without a runoff if it holds on Aug. 18.
- Incumbent Mayor Ken Welch trails Crist in the polls at roughly 17–19% and is under pressure over his administration’s handling of hurricane recovery, workplace complaints, and the collapsed Tampa Bay Rays stadium deal.
- City Council member Brandi Gabbard polls third at about 15% and has received one of the Tampa Bay Times’ split endorsements while the Times’ Viewpoints editor backed Crist, signaling local media skepticism of Welch.
- Voters began receiving mail ballots and early voting is scheduled for Aug. 8–16 with Election Day on Aug. 18, and county turnout so far is low which leaves room for shifts before the primary.
- If no candidate tops 50% on Aug. 18 the top two advance to a Nov. 3 runoff, so the composition of remaining mail and in-person votes will determine whether the primary settles the mayoralty or forces a fall rematch.