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Chalk, Blowouts Dominate 2026 NCAA First Round as Cinderella Runs Rare

Analysts cite NIL, the transfer portal, realignment plus data-driven seeding as likely reasons for the imbalance.

Overview

  • Thirteen of 32 first-round games were decided by at least 20 points, the most on record according to CBS Sports research.
  • Favorites went 16-0 on Friday, marking the first perfect day for higher seeds in a first round since 1992.
  • Only four double-digit seeds reached the Second Round, the fewest since 2007, with a No. 12 the lowest seed to advance for the second straight year.
  • No. 1 seed Florida beat Prairie View A&M 114-55 and set single-game tournament marks for points, field goals made, field-goal percentage, assists and a 59-point margin, as six teams topped 100 points for a round-record total.
  • Explanations diverge, with some pointing to NIL and the portal concentrating talent at power programs while others emphasize a decade-plus of realignment weakening mid-majors and KenPom data showing weaker 12–15 seeds, even as several near-upsets showed the outcome could have looked different.