Overview
- CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency is using AI to scan trading data and flag possible manipulation on prediction markets.
- He said the CFTC will pursue U.S. traders who access offshore sites like Polymarket and will assert extraterritorial authority in strong cases.
- Kalshi has flagged more than 400 suspicious trades this year, more than twice last year’s total, and a source said some were referred to the CFTC.
- The markets let people trade yes-or-no contracts on events such as elections and policy moves, and volumes have surged, with Kalshi at $178 billion annualized and Polymarket at $10.3 billion in April.
- Platforms have tightened safeguards with suspensions, new rules, and partnerships with Chainalysis and Palantir, yet experts say proving insider bets is hard and only one U.S. arrest has been made to date.