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CFTC Targets Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

Regulators signal a turn to active policing following suspicious, high‑payout bets.

Overview

  • David Miller, the CFTC’s enforcement chief who spoke Tuesday at NYU, said insider trading laws apply to event contracts and made prosecutions a top priority with more staff and a streamlined cooperation policy on the way.
  • Federal prosecutors in New York met with Polymarket to examine how insider‑trading rules might cover suspicious wagers, including trades tied to Iran conflict timelines and a large payout linked to Nicolás Maduro, with no allegations against the company.
  • The NFL asked operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket to stop markets it says are easily manipulated or knowable in advance, including announcer comments, celebrity attendance, draft picks, officiating calls, injuries, and fan safety topics.
  • Integrity guardrails are expanding as platforms roll out new bans, with Polymarket blocking trades that use stolen or confidential information and Kalshi restricting politicians from betting on their own elections and athletes from wagering on sports they play.
  • Political and legal pressure is mounting through multiple bills to curb markets on elections, war, assassinations, sports, and other sensitive events, alongside a separate push by more than 40 Democrats for guidance barring federal employees from using nonpublic information, as quarterly volumes reportedly reached about $75 billion.