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CFTC Sues Kentucky to Block State Crackdown on Prediction Markets

Kentucky’s 14.25% excise tax on prediction‑market fees is being challenged as the CFTC asserts exclusive federal authority over event contracts.

Overview

  • The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a federal suit on June 23 asking a court to stop Kentucky officials from enforcing state gaming laws and the 14.25% excise tax against Kalshi, Polymarket and partners.
  • Kentucky had sued Kalshi and Polymarket in state court earlier in June, accusing the platforms and distribution partners such as Coinbase, Robinhood and Webull of operating unlicensed sports wagering.
  • The CFTC says event contracts traded on designated contract markets qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and are therefore governed by federal law rather than state gambling rules.
  • Platforms have removed Kentucky’s state suits to federal court and Kalshi has separately sued Illinois, creating parallel federal cases that could produce conflicting circuit rulings and an eventual Supreme Court resolution.
  • If federal preemption holds, platforms would operate under a single national regime that eases scaling and uniform oversight, while a state‑wins outcome would force geofencing, state licensing and could change tax revenue and consumer protections for residents.