Overview
- Trading records show more than $800 million of U.S. and international crude futures changed hands minutes before President Trump’s March 23, 2026, announcement that he would postpone strikes on Iran, and prices fell about 13 percent afterward enabling large profits.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is reviewing activity tied to at least three firms but has not accused anyone of wrongdoing as it gathers evidence and compares trades to access to nonpublic information.
- Reported winners from the March 23 moves include Jane Street, Qube Research & Technologies, Forza/Metabit and TotalEnergies’ Totsa, which collectively realized multi‑million‑dollar gains according to trading data cited by reporters.
- Investigators are also examining similarly timed spikes in early April and May and separate bets on prediction markets, while some firms say their trades followed a Semafor headline or automated models that scan multiple news feeds.
- Proving misconduct will be hard because exchanges log trade timing and size but not definitive information access, many firms use fast algorithms that react to fragmented headlines, and findings could prompt tougher oversight or transparency changes.