Overview
- CEPAL now pegs regional GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, extending a four-year low-growth stretch.
- Mexico is forecast to expand just 0.4% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, the weakest in the region, due to a sharp slowdown in consumption and a contraction in investment.
- The report says U.S. tariffs on some Mexican goods have dampened investment announcements, while external financing and remittance flows pose additional risks for the region.
- Growth will diverge widely, with Guyana booming and service-focused economies such as the Dominican Republic and Panama outpacing the median, as Argentina’s outlook is trimmed to 4.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
- Regional inflation is expected to edge up to a median 3% in 2026 as job gains slow, and CEPAL urges policies that mobilize investment and raise productivity to break the low-growth pattern.