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CEPAL Projects Low Growth in Latin America Through 2026 as Mexico Falls to the Bottom

The UN commission blames the slowdown on weak demand, contracting investment, tariff uncertainty from the United States.

Overview

  • CEPAL now pegs regional GDP growth at 2.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, extending a four-year low-growth stretch.
  • Mexico is forecast to expand just 0.4% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026, the weakest in the region, due to a sharp slowdown in consumption and a contraction in investment.
  • The report says U.S. tariffs on some Mexican goods have dampened investment announcements, while external financing and remittance flows pose additional risks for the region.
  • Growth will diverge widely, with Guyana booming and service-focused economies such as the Dominican Republic and Panama outpacing the median, as Argentina’s outlook is trimmed to 4.3% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
  • Regional inflation is expected to edge up to a median 3% in 2026 as job gains slow, and CEPAL urges policies that mobilize investment and raise productivity to break the low-growth pattern.