Overview
- CEPAL’s Estudio Económico released Thursday lowered Mexico’s growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3% from 1.5% and projects 1.9% for 2027 while forecasting regional growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.
- The report identifies three structural barriers that explain the downgrade: chronically low investment, weak productivity growth and very high informal employment, which CEPAL measures at about 47.2% in early 2026.
- Compared with peers, CEPAL projects Argentina will grow about 3.3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, leaving Mexico among the larger regional economies with the slowest expected expansion and at risk of extending a multi‑year period of underperformance.
- CEPAL’s recommended response is a ‘formalización productiva’ agenda that combines labor, fiscal, financial and development policies to raise firm capabilities, expand access to credit, boost skills and ease administrative barriers to formal registration.
- If the report’s outlook holds, slower growth will shrink fiscal space, raise the relative cost of public investment and limit the creation of quality formal jobs, so observers should watch whether Mexico’s authorities adopt coordinated measures such as Plan Mexico or stronger development finance to reverse the trend.