Overview
- The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged Wednesday, with Jerome Powell likely giving a final press conference after the Justice Department ended its probe and eased Kevin Warsh’s path to confirmation.
- The ECB and Bank of England are also set to hold policy Thursday as they judge how the Iran war’s squeeze on oil supply could raise prices and slow growth.
- Brent crude has climbed about 50% since February 28, and Dallas Fed research says U.S. crude could reach $115 in October if the disruption lasts.
- The Bank of Japan and Bank of Canada are expected to stay on hold, with officials emphasizing a wait‑and‑see stance while markets still price possible hikes later in 2026.
- A key watch for the Fed is whether its statement signals two‑sided risks that keep the option of future hikes open, which could sway borrowing costs and business plans in the months ahead.