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Centene Shares Drop 14% After CEO Warns of Deeper ACA Disenrollment

A margin-first pricing strategy is driving steep exchange disenrollment.

Overview

  • Shares fell about 14% on Tuesday, ranking among the S&P 500’s worst performers for the day.
  • ACA marketplace membership is expected to be roughly 3.5 million by the end of Q1, down from 5.5 million in December, with February at 3.6 million.
  • Management reaffirmed 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of more than $3 per share.
  • Early readings point to higher specialty-pharmacy utilization concentrated in silver-tier exchange plans.
  • Medicare Advantage margins remain below break-even for 2026, analysts cut targets including Mizuho to $41 Neutral, and a final CMS rate decision is due by April 6.