Cemaden Warns São Paulo Reservoirs Unlikely to Recover This Year as Levels Sink to Post‑2014 Lows

Overview

• Greater São Paulo’s integrated system held about 26% of useful volume at the end of December and the Cantareira was at 20.2%, levels worse than before the 2014–2015 crisis.
• Cemaden’s technical note says even above‑average rain through March would not deliver a satisfactory recovery in 2026, with January already deemed too dry to change the outlook.
• Sabesp reports the Cantareira area received 1,141 mm of rain in 2025, about 77% of normal, following an unusually dry October–December with many locations enduring 50–80 consecutive rain‑free days.
• Cemaden attributes the shortfall primarily to scarce and irregular rainfall, with possible La Niña influence and reduced atmospheric moisture from land‑use change, while experts note 2025 withdrawals reportedly exceeded 70 m³/s.
• State officials maintain 10‑hour nightly pressure cuts and project a conditional rebound to about 47.6% by April 30, while preparing options such as floating pumps and rotation rationing and rejecting the tariff penalties used in 2014.