Overview
- U.S. forces said they shot down four Iranian drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz on Friday and then struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in response, actions that U.S. Central Command said were taken to protect shipping.
- Negotiations to extend the fragile April ceasefire have stalled because Iran is pressing for phased release of about $24 billion in frozen assets and the U.S. is resisting, a deadlock Tehran says places the ball in President Trump’s court.
- Trade and shipping data show Iranian crude exports plunged from roughly 1.8–2.0 million barrels per day to below about 300,000 bpd in May, forcing Tehran to hold large volumes in floating storage and cutting its export revenue sharply.
- U.S. oil inventories are drawing down rapidly, with the Energy Information Administration reporting an 8 million‑barrel weekly crude stock drop for the week ending May 29, while U.S. exports have surged to near‑record levels.
- Analysts warn that even if a deal is reached the Strait will take months to reopen fully because of trapped tankers, possible mines and logistical bottlenecks, which keeps the market vulnerable to a steep price spike that industry sources say could arrive in mid‑to‑late June.