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Ceasefire Leaves Iran’s Regime Intact as Fears of Crackdown Rise

Rights groups warn of a post-war crackdown.

Overview

  • A last-minute ceasefire ended the US-Israeli campaign with the Islamic Republic still in place and officials casting the truce as a victory.
  • Opponents inside Iran say relief from bombing is tempered by fear of more executions and arrests as authorities move to punish perceived dissent.
  • Rights groups report 40 days of near-total internet shutdowns, continued hangings tied to January protests and the MEK, and televised coerced confessions.
  • The state endured high-level losses, including Ali Khamenei’s killing and Mojtaba Khamenei taking over, yet core security networks kept fighting.
  • Earlier US messaging set expectations for weeks more of strikes and exposed Iran’s vast missile infrastructure, but the truce leaves political change and rights demands unresolved.