Overview
- ARD/ZDF projections show the CDU at roughly 30.6–30.9%, the SPD at about 25.9–26.4%, the AfD near 20% and the Greens around 8%, positioning Gordon Schnieder to become minister-president.
- Alexander Schweitzer conceded and congratulated Schnieder, and he had previously said he would not take a post in a CDU-led government.
- The AfD more than doubled its 2021 vote to about 20%, its strongest result in a western German state and likely the largest opposition presence in the new Landtag.
- FDP, Free Voters and The Left are projected below the 5% threshold, concentrating seats among the CDU, SPD, AfD and Greens and leaving a CDU–SPD coalition as the workable option.
- Turnout rose to roughly 69–69.5%, with ZDF analysis citing state-level concerns and perceived CDU competence on education, infrastructure and the economy as key drivers.