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14h ago

CDU Leads Rhineland-Palatinate Election in Public TV Forecast

The projection sets up coalition bargaining that sidelines the AfD.

Members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) wait for the first election polls for the federal state election in Rhineland-Palatinate, in Mainz, Germany, March 22, 2026. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach
Gordon Schnieder, top candidate of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, reacts outside a polling station after voting in the federal state election of Rhineland-Palatinate, in Birresborn, Germany, March 22, 2026. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen
Gordon Schnieder, top candidate of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, next to his wife Diane, casts his vote in the federal state election of Rhineland-Palatinate, at a polling station in Birresborn, Germany, March 22, 2026. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen
Polls suggest the CDU's top candidate Gordon Schnieder (L) could put his party back in power in the state for the first time since 1991

Overview

  • An ARD forecast after polls closed puts the CDU at 30.5%, the SPD at 27%, and the AfD at 20%.
  • The projected lead offers Chancellor Friedrich Merz a lift following the CDU’s narrow loss in Baden-Wuerttemberg on March 8.
  • The AfD is set to take around one-fifth of the vote in the state and is now the second-strongest party nationally, yet other parties rule out cooperation.
  • With no outright majority indicated, a CDU–SPD partnership is seen as the most likely governing option in the state.
  • SPD premier Alexander Schweitzer has sought to retain his alliance with the Greens and FDP, while CDU contender Gordon Schnieder is positioned to bid for the top job depending on final results.