Overview
- Exit-poll projections from ARD/infratest dimap and ZDF/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen put the CDU at about 30.5% and the SPD at roughly 26.5–27%.
- The AfD is projected around 20% to finish third, with the Greens at 7.5–8.5% and the FDP near 2% below the threshold to re-enter the Landtag.
- With the SPD–Green–FDP alliance lacking a majority and all mainstream parties rejecting cooperation with the AfD, outlets say a CDU–SPD grand coalition is the practical path to a majority.
- Seat estimates based on the projections suggest roughly CDU 36, SPD 31–32, AfD 24, and Greens 9–10 mandates in the new parliament.
- Turnout is reported at about 63.5%, and officials caution that final results may shift as remaining—especially postal—ballots are counted.