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Cboe Explores All-or-None Options to Take On Prediction Markets

The effort aims to provide a regulated alternative to prediction markets despite an uncertain regulatory path.

Overview

  • Cboe confirmed it is developing a product using an options structure that pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and zero if it is not.
  • Cboe is in early discussions with retail brokerages and market makers about product design and how trades would be handled.
  • The exchange has not set a launch timeline, and it has not specified which outcomes or events the contracts might target.
  • Analysts say the simple yes-or-no payoff could appeal to retail traders, positioning Cboe against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as well as efforts by CME Group with FanDuel and Coinbase’s partnership with Kalshi.
  • Cboe’s renewed push follows a 2008 foray into binary-style options that were later delisted, with today’s event contracts still facing complex oversight from federal regulators and state actions that treat them as gambling.