Overview
- The baseline shows a roughly $1.9 trillion federal deficit in fiscal 2026 rising to about $3.1 trillion by 2036.
- Debt held by the public increases from about 101% of GDP this year to around 120% within a decade, surpassing the post‑World War II peak.
- CBO scores the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as adding about $4.7 trillion to deficits through 2035, while reduced immigration raises deficits by roughly $500 billion.
- Expanded tariffs are projected to trim deficits by around $3 trillion, with revenues front‑loaded and near‑term inflation higher through 2029.
- Net interest outlays more than double from about $1 trillion in 2026 to roughly $2.1 trillion in 2036, totaling near $16 trillion over ten years, as CBO also advances the Social Security OASI exhaustion date to 2032 and forecasts slower growth than the administration.