Overview
- CBO projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund will shrink from about $2.19 trillion in 2026 to $384 billion in 2031 before reaching zero in 2032.
- If lawmakers do not act, Social Security would pay about 93% of scheduled benefits for part of 2032 and about 72% from 2033 onward.
- For an average $2,071 monthly retirement benefit, the projected shortfall equals roughly $145 less per month late in 2032 and about $580 less per month thereafter.
- The Social Security Administration has implemented a 2.8% COLA for 2026—about $56 more per month on average—though a roughly $21 rise in the standard Medicare Part B premium reduces the net increase.
- Other 2026 changes include a higher retirement earnings limit of about $24,480 and an increased taxable maximum of $184,500, which boosts payroll tax revenue.