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CBO Moves Social Security Solvency Deadline to 2032 as Benefit Cuts Loom

Absent new legislation, payments would be reduced to incoming payroll-tax revenue once reserves run out.

Overview

  • The new forecast advances the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance depletion date by a year from the 2025 Trustees’ 2033 estimate, reflecting higher inflation and weaker revenue.
  • CBO models an automatic 7% cut in 2032 with average reductions of roughly 28% from 2033 to 2036 if Congress does not act.
  • The Social Security Administration would continue issuing benefits but would trim amounts to match receipts, and more than 70 million people depend on the program.
  • Operationally, March’s Supplemental Security Income will be paid on Feb. 27 because March 1 falls on a Sunday, with additional payment shifts in August and November.
  • Current benchmarks show the average retired worker received $2,071.30 as of December and a maximum earner delaying to age 70 in 2026 could collect about $5,181 per month.