Overview
- The CBI Growth Indicator fell to -33 in the three months to January, with services, distribution and manufacturing all reporting declines.
- The business group expects activity to drop over the next quarter and notes fragile demand alongside rising price pressures.
- Based on responses from 904 firms surveyed Dec. 18–Jan. 13, companies signalled job cuts, with business and professional services expecting an 8% headcount decline and consumer services around 29%.
- Other data show tentative improvement since November, including the strongest January PMIs since early 2024, faster December retail sales growth and a 0.3% GDP rise in November.
- Inflation rose to 3.4% in December and the labour market softened, while the Bank of England sees price growth nearing 2% by late spring and ministers cite forecast upgrades from the OBR, BoE, IMF and OECD.