Cattle Futures Climb as Supply Signals Tighten Near‑Term Availability

Overview

• After the USDA Cattle on Feed report showed May placements down about 10% and marketings down roughly 12%, traders pushed cattle futures higher on expectations of reduced near‑term fed cattle throughput.
• USDA APHIS has recorded 15 New World screwworm detections in Texas and New Mexico with 12 currently active, raising risks to herd movements and cross‑border trade restrictions that could further limit cattle flows.
• Packing disruptions, including the recent JBS Souderton, Pennsylvania plant closure, and very light cash trade that averaged about $254 last week have compounded concerns about immediate cattle availability.
• Wholesale data show mixed boxed beef prices and an estimated weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter near 526,000 head, a level below last year that supports the view of tighter short‑term supplies.
• Hog markets diverge as pork supplies and weak exports—USDA reporting pork export sales at a marketing‑year low near 16,100–16,123 metric tons—keep lean hog futures under pressure despite some cutout value gains, a split that could shift consumer prices and packer margins.