Catastrophic Flash Flooding Ongoing in Texas Hill Country

Overview

• The Weather Prediction Center and local NWS offices warned Thursday that catastrophic flash flooding was likely across the Texas Hill Country and that dangerous flooding continued into Friday morning with a Flash Flood Emergency issued for Sonora.
• Storm clusters have produced extreme rain rates commonly of 2–4 inches per hour with localized bursts higher than that, and models and radar show repeated backbuilding and training that sustain heavy totals in the same spots.
• Soils and streams are already saturated from earlier 4–16 inch totals which lowers flash‑flood guidance so even an additional 1–3 inches broadly or 3–6 inches locally can trigger rapid, life‑threatening runoff.
• Significant but more isolated flash‑flood threats exist in central and southern Arizona, southwest Utah and parts of the Mid‑South where hourly rates near 2–2.5 inches and terrain features can produce sudden flooding.
• Forecasters say high‑resolution models broadly capture the threat but differ on exact placement so WPC and local forecast offices are issuing repeated mesoscale discussions, warnings and emergencies as communities face flooded roads, rising creeks and the potential for more damaging surges.