Overview
- December Case‑Shiller data show national prices up 1.3% year over year with a 0.3% unadjusted monthly dip, capping 2025 at a 1.3% annual gain that ranks as the softest since 2011.
- FHFA reports single‑family prices rose 1.8% from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 with a 0.1% monthly increase in December, underscoring mixed short‑term signals across major indices.
- Regional results diverged sharply as Chicago (+5.3%), New York (+5.1%) and Cleveland (+4.0%) led gains, while Tampa (‑2.9%), Denver (‑2.1%), Phoenix, Dallas and Miami (each about ‑1.5%) declined.
- Inflation of 2.7% in 2025 outpaced home‑price growth, turning real home‑price returns negative in mid‑2025 and marking a break from the prior decade’s inflation‑beating gains.
- Zillow’s January snapshot shows national values roughly flat at +0.2% year over year with about 100 of the 300 largest metros falling, reflecting stabilization rather than a broad rebound as tight entry‑level supply contrasts with softer Sun Belt markets.