Overview
- Tuesday’s budget doubles as a confidence vote, and Prime Minister Mark Carney says he is ready to campaign if it fails.
- Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne says there will be no surprises and frames the plan as a generational reset to build domestic capacity as trade tensions with the United States persist.
- Ottawa will separate capital from operating spending and vows to balance the operating side within three years, with future borrowing focused on capital projects.
- Analysts expect a deficit far above last year’s $42 billion projection, with estimates commonly in the $75–90 billion range.
- The plan pairs a significant defence ramp‑up to meet NATO commitments and pre‑announced outlays ($9B for defence, housing and SMR funding) with multi‑year operating cuts that unions warn could drive substantial public‑service job losses.