Overview
- CareEdge raised its FY26 GDP forecast to 7.5% from 6.9%, citing stronger-than-expected H1 growth and projecting a H2 cooldown, lower nominal growth at 8.3%, and adherence to the 4.4% fiscal deficit target aided by higher RBI dividends.
- The RBI now pegs FY26 growth at 7.3% and cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% after exceptionally low CPI readings, while its inflation forecast for FY26 was trimmed to 2.0%.
- Crisil upgraded India’s FY26 growth outlook to 7.0% and expects CPI inflation at 2.5%, noting support from GST rationalisation and tax relief but warning that US tariffs could weigh on exports and investment.
- Axis Bank forecasts GDP growth of about 7.5% in FY27 with headline inflation near 4%, pointing to easing financial conditions, a reviving investment cycle and scope for lower long-term yields.
- Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman defended India’s growth narrative in Parliament, citing the 8.2% Q2 print and recent rating upgrades, as officials acknowledged IMF concerns on statistical vintage and confirmed a base-year update next year.