Overview
- Barmer reports about 140,000 people were classified as needing care in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern in 2023, nearly double the count a decade earlier.
- IT.NRW projects roughly 1.7 million care‑dependent people in North Rhine‑Westphalia by 2050, more than 20 percent above 2023, while emphasizing the model assumes constant care rates and serves only for orientation.
- Barmer attributes much of the recent growth to expanded benefits from the 2017 reform, noting Pflegegrad 1 cases rose from about 1,200 to over 22,000 and average care duration increased to 7.5 years.
- The NRW model indicates marked regional divergence, with the largest increases expected in Coesfeld (+46%), Borken (+45%) and Paderborn (+43%) versus smaller rises of around 7% in Hagen, Gelsenkirchen and Herne.
- Projections for care settings in NRW suggest residents in nursing homes could rise by about one third to around 226,000 by 2050, while those served by ambulatory providers may grow 28% to about 308,000, as policymakers flag growing household burdens and discuss options such as a Sockel‑Spitzen‑Tausch.