Overview
- Cantor Fitzgerald published a note on Tuesday saying bitcoin is likely in the final stage of its bear cycle and that prior cycles bottomed about 384 days after their peaks, which points to a possible low in late October 2026 if history repeats.
- The report comes as bitcoin has fallen roughly 50% from its late‑2025 peak and was trading near $59,500 with market stress elevated after large June spot‑ETF redemptions and leveraged liquidations increased short‑term selling pressure.
- Cantor told investors to pivot from speculative bets to networks and tokens that can convert usage into lasting value, naming bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset and ethereum as the main collateral layer for on‑chain finance.
- The note highlighted fee‑driven tokenomics as a durable model, pointed to Hyperliquid as an example, and started coverage of digital‑treasury firms Forward Industries and Cypherpunk Technologies with overweight ratings and price targets.
- Analysts warned the timing model is not exact and that macroeconomic moves, U.S. regulatory actions, and geopolitical shocks could change the outlook while noting that ETF redemptions mechanically force sales of underlying bitcoin and can amplify price swings.