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Canícula Forecast to Bring Drier, Hotter Mid‑Summer to Mexico

Officials say this seasonal pause in rains can lift daytime temperatures above 37°C and increase heat-related health risks.

Overview

  • News outlets and Mexico’s meteorological agencies reiterated on July 11–12 that the canícula is expected in mid‑July through August and will produce a temporary drop in rainfall across parts of the country.
  • The canícula is a seasonal pattern marked by reduced precipitation and clearer skies caused by persistent high‑pressure systems rather than a short heat surge.
  • Authorities distinguish a canícula from an onda de calor by duration and definition: the canícula is a weeks‑long dry spell while an onda de calor is defined by CENAPRED as more than three consecutive days with above‑average temperatures.
  • States that historically feel the canícula hardest include Campeche, Chiapas, Colima, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Michoacán, Morelos, Nuevo León, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Tabasco, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala, Veracruz and Yucatán.
  • Officials recommend simple protections such as frequent hydration, avoiding direct sun between 11:00 and 16:00, light clothing, and extra care for children, the elderly and people with chronic illnesses while urging residents to follow official forecasts because timing and intensity can vary year to year.