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Canada’s Economy Shrinks 0.6% Annualized in Q4, Capping a Volatile 2025

A sharp inventory drawdown drove the shortfall versus forecasts.

Overview

  • Statistics Canada reported a 0.6% annualized decline in real GDP for the fourth quarter, weaker than Bank of Canada and private forecasters’ expectations for flat growth.
  • Businesses pulled about $23.5 billion from inventories at an annualized pace, which was the primary drag on quarterly output.
  • Real GDP rose 0.2% in December and advanced 1.7% for 2025, the slowest annual growth since 2016 outside the pandemic years.
  • Trade swings linked to U.S. tariffs continued to weigh on the economy, with exports showing late‑year improvement but not fully recovering from the second‑quarter slump.
  • Statistics Canada revised growth to 2.4% in Q3 and a 0.9% contraction in Q2 on an annualized basis, and an advance estimate suggests output stalled in January.