Overview
- Canada announced 50% tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum on Friday, and U.S. steel stocks fell as investors priced the policy shock into exporters’ competitiveness.
- Steel Dynamics guided Q3 EPS to $5.34–$5.38 and Nucor guided to $5.55–$5.65, with both ranges below Wall Street consensus and triggering intraday share declines.
- Analysts broadly called the guidance conservative rather than a sign of lasting demand weakness, and JPMorgan raised its Steel Dynamics price target to $273 despite the selloff.
- The sector’s fundamentals remain supportive with U.S. benchmark steel prices near $1,237 per ton after a roughly 30% year‑to‑date rise, but higher input costs and tariff exposure pose near‑term risks.
- Steel Dynamics expects Q3 steel profits to improve sequentially from margin expansion, higher selling prices, lower scrap costs and higher shipments while its aluminum platform continues to scale and lose money.