Overview
- An internal March 18 ITAC assessment says an extremist attack on Canada’s Jewish community is a realistic possibility within the next six months under a heightened violent extremism threat environment tied to Middle East conflict.
- Analysts judge the most probable scenario to be a lone actor using knives, small arms or a vehicle against easily accessible targets such as schools, community centres and synagogues.
- The nationwide terrorism threat level remains at medium, and ITAC assesses that Iranian lethal operations targeting Jewish public officials are unlikely, though violent rhetoric, hate crime and criminal intimidation are expected to rise.
- The assessment references two March 6 shootings at Greater Toronto Area synagogues and the March 10 shooting at the U.S. consulate, noting exterior damage with no injuries and treating the incidents as part of the analytic picture.
- The federal government has announced $10 million through the Canada Community Security Program to bolster security at Jewish institutions, and CSIS says it has increased operations and community engagement related to Iran-linked and extremist activity.