Overview
- Statistics Canada reported on Monday, June 22 that headline consumer price inflation rose to 3.2% year‑over‑year in May with a 1.0% monthly gain driven mainly by higher gasoline costs.
- Gasoline prices jumped about 33.2% year‑over‑year in May and lifted transportation costs, while air fares and jet fuel also added to the monthly rise.
- Core Bank of Canada measures stayed close to target with CPI‑median near 2.1% and CPI‑trim around 2.0%, indicating underlying inflation remained contained.
- Oil and pump prices have fallen in June after an interim U.S.‑Iran peace deal, so analysts expect headline inflation to cool next month but warn that food price persistence and second‑round pass‑through could prolong higher inflation.
- Markets and economists judged the May move largely energy driven and priced a near‑zero chance of a July rate hike, though the Bank of Canada will watch upcoming food, transport and core readings before deciding policy on July 15.