Overview
- Electricity consumption is projected to rise about 44% from 2023 to 2050, pushing total capacity from roughly 160 GW to around 310 GW as homes, industry and new technologies increase reliance on the grid.
- Wind is expected to provide the largest share of new generation capacity, with more than 96% of additions coming from low- or non‑emitting sources across all scenarios.
- Natural gas production is forecast to climb from about 19 bcf/d in 2025 to between 21 and 32 bcf/d by 2050, with growth determined largely by the scale of LNG export development and roughly a quarter of output tied to LNG by mid‑century.
- Oil outcomes diverge across four scenarios, with a baseline peak near 6.1 million barrels per day in the early 2040s and a range from an 18% increase to a 12% decline by 2050 depending on market conditions.
- Greenhouse gas emissions decline in every case but level off around 2035 under current policies, and hitting net‑zero by 2050 would require an economy‑wide shift to low‑carbon technologies.