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Canada and Alberta Seal Deal Linking West Coast Pipeline to Carbon‑Pricing Plan

Fixing Alberta’s carbon‑price and credit‑floor trajectories ties pipeline approval to progress on the Pathways carbon‑capture project.

Overview

  • The governments announced the implementation agreement last Friday that formalizes a bargain: pipeline approval is conditioned on a sequenced Pathways carbon‑capture project and a lock on Alberta’s industrial carbon‑pricing path.
  • The deal freezes Alberta’s industrial price at $95 in 2026, raises it to $100 from 2027–2030 and sets $130 by 2035 with modest growth to 2040, and creates a credit price floor rising from $60 in 2030 to $110 in 2040.
  • Officials set administrative deadlines that require Alberta to submit a pipeline proposal by July 1, 2026, aim for a federal national‑interest designation by Oct. 1, 2026 and target approval by Sept. 1, 2027, with in‑service ambitions in 2033–34 and initial Pathways operation around 2035.
  • The agreement commits Ottawa and Alberta to joint financial tools — including contracts for difference and underwriting 75 million tonnes of reductions from 2030–2040 — actions supporters say will give investors certainty while critics say they delay near‑term climate stringency.
  • Pathways is capital intensive, with industry costs reported at roughly $24 billion before 2030 including about $16.5 billion for the capture network, which makes substantial public support and clear policy design — including the contracts‑for‑difference details due by year‑end — central to the project’s feasibility.