Overview
- Statistics Canada data showed a net gain of 18,200 jobs in June, beating expectations and pushing the unemployment rate down to 6.5%.
- Nearly all of the new jobs were part-time even though private-sector payrolls rose by 32,000 and government payrolls fell by 31,000.
- Average hourly earnings accelerated to 3.7% from 3.2%, giving a clear sign that pay pressures have picked up.
- Manufacturing was the weak spot with employment down about 17,000 in June and roughly 61,000 fewer jobs since January 2025, underlining a sharp sectoral divergence.
- Markets reacted with a modestly stronger Canadian dollar and traders now price a roughly 50% chance of a rate increase by year-end while short-term USDCAD charts show selling pressure with support around 1.4130–1.4149 to watch.