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Can Bitcoin Flip Gold? New Analysis Puts Parity Near $1.9 Million per Coin

A years-long, institution-led accumulation under fixed supply could make parity plausible by the mid‑2030s.

Overview

  • Samson Mow labeled Bitcoin “exponential gold” on March 8 and said it will inevitably outperform the metal.
  • Bitcoin’s market value is roughly $1.4 trillion versus gold’s about $36 trillion, with BTC trading near $68,000.
  • Yahoo Finance estimates Bitcoin would need to rise more than 27× to around $1.9 million per coin to match gold’s market cap today.
  • Scarcity factors include about 95% of the 21 million coins already mined, an estimated 3–4 million lost, and a 2028 halving that will cut new issuance to 1.5 BTC every 10 minutes.
  • Spot ETFs hold about 7% of possible supply, public companies 5.1%, and governments 2.5%, and the report projects any flip would likely be gradual with the earliest modeled parity in early 2035.