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Cambridge Study Finds Launch Costs Have Fallen 95% and Could Drop Far More by 2040

The paper shows steep, experience‑driven price falls could unlock new orbital industries, tied to a handful of firms and shaped by geopolitical choices.

Cambridge economists just modeled the steepest cost collapse in transportation history — and the same company driving it down is the reason the forecast might not hold
Image for representation | SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket is launched, carrying four commercial astronauts into a 90-degree inclination polar orbit on the Fram2 mission at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida, U.S., on 31 March 2025. | Joe Skipper | Reuters
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Overview

  • Researchers compiled the largest global launch database of about 4,400 flights and found the real cost to reach low Earth orbit has fallen roughly 95% since 1960.
  • Using Wright’s Law learning‑curve methods the authors project average costs of about $1,570 per kilogram by 2030 and as low as $273 per kilogram by 2040 under central scenarios.
  • The near‑term gains in the model rely heavily on large, reusable superheavy rockets reaching high flight rates, and the study notes those outcomes assume technologies such as SpaceX’s Starship achieve full reuse and operational success.
  • Falling costs could more than triple annual payload capacity by 2030 and enable new businesses — from in‑orbit manufacturing to orbital tourism — that would change how people work and invest in space.
  • The authors warn that heavy market concentration (SpaceX carries roughly 80% of annual payload), profit‑seeking monopoly behaviour or geopolitical shifts could raise prices, slow learning, or split markets and so change the projected trajectory.