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Cambridge Index Reveals Pennies‑Per‑Number SMS Market Enabling Fake Accounts

The study points to telecom‑driven pricing with SIM controls as a way to raise abuse costs.

Overview

  • Researchers published a peer‑reviewed Science paper and launched the Cambridge Online Trust and Safety Index on Dec 11, providing daily prices across 197 countries and more than 500 platforms.
  • API data from SMSActivate, 5Sim, SMShub, and SMSPVA show many verifications cost a few cents, with Japan near $5 and Australia around $3 where SIMs are pricier and more regulated.
  • Platform costs vary sharply, with a U.S. number for WhatsApp around $3 versus about $0.08 for X, reflecting stricter vetting on messaging apps according to the authors.
  • Prices for Telegram and WhatsApp rise ahead of national elections, signaling surges in demand for locally registered accounts during politically sensitive periods.
  • WhatsApp said it welcomed the research and cited additional signals beyond phone numbers, while SMSPVA rejected the 'gray market' label; authors propose curbing bulk SIM acquisition and warn providers may tighten API access.