Overview
- The UC Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll conducted Aug. 3–9 found 48% of likely voters support Proposition 40, 41% oppose it, and 11% are undecided with a ±2.5 point margin of error for the likely‑voter sample.
- Support breaks sharply by party with about 70% of Democrats backing the tax and roughly 80% of Republicans opposed, and younger, minority and lower‑income voters showing stronger backing than older, wealthier Californians.
- Two billionaire‑backed measures, Propositions 41 and 42, were written to override Proposition 40 if they receive more votes, making relative vote totals and voter confusion decisive for which policy would take effect.
- The proposal would impose a one‑time 5% tax on California residents with at least $1 billion in net worth as of Jan. 1, 2026, with proponents estimating roughly $100 billion in near‑term revenue and critics warning retroactivity, valuation and enforcement could reduce net receipts.
- Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned that the measure’s sub‑50 percent standing is a warning sign because undecided voters on ballot measures tend to break against them and well‑funded campaigns on both sides are expected to intensify before November.