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California Home Sales Fall Below Great Recession Pace as Prices Stay Near Record

Mortgage lock-in keeps listings scarce, propping up prices despite weak demand.

Overview

  • Attom data show 954,423 California property sales in 2023–25, about 24% fewer than 2007–09 and down 31% versus the prior 18‑year average, even as nationwide 2023–25 sales exceeded Great Recession totals.
  • The state’s median price reached $710,000 in December 2025, up 9% over three years and roughly 5% below the all-time high.
  • Freddie Mac’s 30‑year rate climbed from about 6.3% to 7.6% before easing to 6.2% by December 2025 and briefly dipping below 6% in early 2026, reinforcing a lock‑in that discourages owners from selling.
  • Only about 30% of California households could qualify for a starter home in 2023–25, down from 49% in 2007–09, according to the California Association of Realtors.
  • A structural housing deficit estimated around 2.5 million units and rebuilding delays after disasters—such as just 13 of 6,571 Palisades Fire-destroyed homes rebuilt by February 2026—are keeping inventory tight.