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California High-Speed Rail Cost Projection Hits $231 Billion as Board Delays Plan Vote

Watchdogs say the draft plan breaks disclosure rules, leaving no clear funding path.

Overview

  • California’s High-Speed Rail Authority, which postponed a vote Wednesday to May, held back after the state inspector general and the Legislative Analyst’s Office said the draft 2026 business plan omits required cost and schedule detail and violates state disclosure laws.
  • The latest state estimates put the San FranciscoLos Angeles Phase 1 at $126 billion to $231 billion, while the MercedBakersfield segment is pegged at roughly $34.8 billion to $36 billion with completion targeted around 2032 to 2033.
  • The draft plan floats major scope shifts, including moving the planned Merced station out of downtown and switching from two tracks to a single track, changes reviewers say are obscure and could mean less service for more money.
  • Project leaders point to $1 billion a year from California’s cap‑and‑trade program through 2045 and to private investors to close gaps, but lawmakers question whether those dollars will materialize as reported spending has already reached roughly $14 billion to $15.7 billion.
  • Critics, including prominent Republicans, urge ending the project as timelines slip toward limited Central Valley service in the early 2030s and a possible San FranciscoLos Angeles connection around 2040, and as federal support shrank with about $4 billion in grants withdrawn in 2025.