Overview
- Election modeler Paul Mitchell estimates roughly a 17% to 20% chance that both Republicans advance to November, with his tool giving Steve Hilton strong odds for a top-two slot and Chad Bianco a meaningful shot.
- A recent Evitarus survey sponsored by state Democrats found Hilton at 16% and Bianco at 14%, while leading Democrats such as Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter and Tom Steyer clustered near 10% in a field of more than 50 candidates.
- Party chair Rusty Hicks urged low-polling Democrats to step aside and the state party is funding public polls to gauge viability, though analysts note dropouts stay on the ballot and can still siphon votes.
- USC canceled a planned debate after criteria yielded an all-white lineup and excluded Black, Latino and Asian candidates, a flap that deepened intraparty tensions over fairness as the race stays unsettled.
- California’s top-two system advances only the two highest vote-getters regardless of party and the state does not allow general-election write-ins, a setup Democrats warn could dampen turnout and endanger key House targets if no Democrat reaches November.