Overview
- Eight Democrats and two Republicans filed by the March 6 deadline, finalizing a 10-candidate lineup for the June 2 top-two primary.
- California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks’ appeal for lagging Democrats to exit was largely ignored, with only Ian Calderon dropping out and endorsing Eric Swalwell.
- Recent polling clusters Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco with Democrats Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer, leaving no clear frontrunner.
- The Secretary of State will verify submissions and publish the certified candidate list by March 21 ahead of vote-by-mail ballots going out in the coming weeks.
- Analysts caution that Democratic fragmentation could enable a GOP-only runoff, with one model estimating roughly a 27% chance of that outcome.